Analysis

Le Pen is banned (for now). What's next?

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is banned from running in the next presidential election. Will it backfire or boost the far-right cause?
Ciara Boulman, Nathan Domon | 02/04/2025

On Monday, the bomb dropped: Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far-right party National Rally (RN), was found guilty of embezzling EU taxpayer money. From 2004 to 2016, nearly €3 million meant to pay parliamentary assistants in Brussels was used to pay party staff in France – people who weren't doing EU work at all.

Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison (two suspended, two under electronic surveillance) and fined €100,000. But the real blow? She's been banned from running for public office for five years – likely ending her 2027 presidential hopes. She's appealing the verdict, and a final decision is expected in summer of 2026. So technically, there's still a (tiny) chance she could run – if she's cleared.

A blessing in disguise?

With Le Pen out of the running (for now), all eyes are on her protégé, Jordan Bardella. He is young, super active on social media, and doesn't carry the baggage of the controversial Le Pen family name. That could help the party appeal to a broader crowd. But he'll only be 31 in 2027. Some wonder: is he ready for the top job?

For the party, the ruling is a double-edged sword. Le Pen spent years trying to make the party look respectable and mainstream. That work has taken a hit. But at the same time, the ruling gives the far right exactly what it loves most: a chance to play the victim. Le Pen and her allies immediately said the ruling was ”political”. That the system is trying to silence her. That it's all a setup to block her path to power.

Of course, no conspiracy here. The judges and many experts stressed that the court's decision was based on facts and simply upheld the law – and showed that everyone is equal before it. But that probably won't stop the far right from turning this into a rallying cry. They're already pushing the narrative that the system is ”rigged” against them. A message that could galvanise, if not radicalise, their core voters.

Straight out of the playbook

This isn't a new tactic. Far-right leaders across Europe often react the same way when they lose in court: they go after the judges. That's what we're seeing here, too. Le Pen's allies are calling out a supposed ”tyranny of the judges”. It's the same kind of language that was heard recently in Romania, where far-right candidate Calin Georgescu slammed a ruling barring him from the presidential race due to Russian interference as a ”formalised coup d'état”.

For many, this kind of backlash in France isn't just noise, it's a warning sign of increasingly radicalising public debate, where attacking judges and institutions becomes normal. Some observers have expressed alarm at this ”judge bashing”, arguing that democratic backsliding, as seen in countries like Hungary, often begins with attacks on the independence of the judges.

The international reaction to Le Pen's verdict was also telling. Figures like Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders, and Italy's deputy minister Matteo Salvini all rushed to her defence. Even the Kremlin chimed in, calling the ruling a ”violation of democratic norms”. That kind of support may energise the RN's base – but it could also damage the party's credibility with more moderate voters.

Hypocrisy, anyone?

At the heart of it all, this case shows the double standards of the far right. They love to rail against ”corrupt elites” and immigrants ”abusing social benefits” – but here we have a far-right leader funnelling taxpayer money into party coffers. They say they're tough on crime, hate corruption, and call for strict law and order – except when it applies to them. And they claim to defend democracy – yet they attack the very institutions that keep it running.

For voters, this whole episode is a revealing moment. It shows what the far right really offers: not a fight for ”the will of the people”, but a system where rules can be bent when convenient, and where democratic norms are optional when they get in the way.

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