Given all that's happening in the world, you're forgiven if you've forgotten about one of Europe's longest-standing conflicts – between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But now, there's a (very small) chance the conflict may end.

Brief reminder: Azerbaijan last defeated the Armenian military in 2020 and ethnically cleansed Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Now, the governments have agreed on the text of a long-pending peace agreement.

To get there, Armenia has had to concede quite a lot. Azerbaijan demands that Armenia change its constitution to no longer include Nagorno-Karabakh as part of its territory. Baku deems this a threat to its territorial integrity.

For months, the draft agreement had stalled due to Azerbaijani demands. Concretely, they demanded the mutual withdrawal of legal cases from international courts and the nondeployment of foreign forces along the Armenia–Azerbaijan border.

The last demand is especially problematic, likely including the EU's monitoring mission (EUMA). Operating since 2023, the EUMA has provided impartial reports on border activities, often contradicting Azerbaijan's claims of Armenian provocations. In fact, following the announcement of the deal, Azerbaijan's defence ministry claimed that Armenian troops had fired on Azerbaijani positions along the border. EUMA refuted these claims.