The friend of my enemy is my ally
At least two countries of the Moscow-led military alliance, that Armenia is a part of, have ”participated in the war preparation” against Armenia in 2020, according to the country’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. He did not clarify which countries he meant, but the statement came a day after the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenka announced in Azerbaijan that before the start of the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani war over Nagorno-Karabakh, he discussed potential military actions with Azerbaijani president Aliyev, concluding ”that victory could be achieved in war.” The second country that Pashinyan referred to is most likely Russia. Russia has not commented on the statement but, with relations between the two nations deteriorating, summoned its ambassador to Armenia for ”periodical” consultations.
Armenia, along with Belarus, Russia and three Central Asian states, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which it joined following the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, over time, Armenia has often found itself isolated and betrayed by the predominantly authoritarian alliance.
Recent warm-hearted photos of the Belarusian and Azerbaijani leaders in Nagorno-Karabakh have reopened fresh wounds in Armenia, provoking further discussion about Armenia’s troubled membership in CSTO. Lukashenka brought tractors as gifts for cities that Azerbaijan took control of following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and Aliyev gave him a tour of the region, which was mostly emptied after the 2023 mass exodus of ethnic Armenians. Both strongmen have cracked down on dissent and freedom within their countries while strengthening their international support within the authoritarian club.
Belarus was the second-largest arms supplier to Azerbaijan after Israel, accounting for about 7.1% of its arms imports between 2011 and 2020. During his recent visit, Lukashenka expressed his readiness to support Azerbaijan with equipment, agro-town construction, job creation, and certain technologies to rebuild the Karabakh region.
Yerevan, which has little to nothing in common with its military alliance partners, has long been dependent on the CSTO during its conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan. However, since the allies failed to issue even political condemnation following Azerbaijan’s invasion of its sovereign territory, relations with the CSTO have deteriorated. Armenia has <a href=”https://www.europeancorrespondent.com/r/armenia-pivots-to-the-west” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>continuously boycotted several high-level meetings, military exercises, and other CSTO activities and recently stopped making financial contributions to the organisation. In recent years, Armenia has attempted to <a href=”https://www.europeancorrespondent.com/r/french-radars-to-protect-armenian-skies” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>diversify its security partners. However, with potential for a new escalation growing in the region, it has to play its cards carefully.