The opposition's 'plan' for Georgia
Two weeks after Georgia's 26 October parliamentary election, where the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party claimed a landslide victory amidst accusations of electoral fraud, the post-election standoff shows no sign of easing. The four main opposition parties, along with some of their supporters, are rejecting the election results, while the outside world is seen as being slow to recognise the elections or question their legitimacy.
Plan of resistance
The opposition has organised two large-scale rallies, yet the efforts to consolidate widespread dissatisfaction with the election outcome have fallen short. Following several private meetings, the opposition announced its ”Plan of resistance”, at the rally on 4 November. The ”plan” outlines a series of actions aimed at challenging the election results, including a demand for a new election, the formation of a resistance movement, a call for more protests, and evidence collection to support the denouncement of ”stolen elections”.
The opposition leaders have called on the citizens to join protests, framing them as essential for defending democracy. Georgian society, frozen in limbo after the election, appears to largely agree with them, yet there's a sense of hesitation among citizens. This reaction to what some might call an expected outcome contrasts with massive self-organised gatherings against the controversial ”foreign influence” bill earlier this year.
Mismanaged expectations
Reflecting on the opposition's strategy, a professor of Georgia's modern history Beka Kobakhidze criticises it for failing to translate people's anger into action against the GD. ”We cannot offer you something concrete, so let's solve the problem primitively by holding the rallies,” Kobakhidze describes the opposition's approach. According to him, ineffective expectation management is one of the opposition's main shortcomings.
Megi Kartsivadze, an Oxford University PhD candidate, also highlights the issue of mismanaged expectations within the opposition. In an interview with The European Correspondent, Kartsivadze describes ”a simulation reality” of fear and nihilism that the GD party has created. ”Traditional activism is powerless here, the opposition has to adapt its fight with this new reality,” she believes. But time is passing, and while the opposition is just starting to plan its response, GD is legitimising its power.
Like many, Kartsivadze argues that the opposition's neglect of consistent ideological work allowed GD and its billionaire leader, Bidzina Ivanishvili, to consolidate influence. This is the case, especially in the rural areas, where support for the GD stands the strongest and where the majority of the electoral irregularities occurred and is just one strategic blind spot in the opposition's campaign.
As blame is passed around, the GD party denies any manipulations surrounding the recent parliamentary election, and the anger felt by a significant portion of voters shows no sign of fading.