The Green Deal arose from the realisation that to avoid total climate catastrophe, we need to switch things up – change what and how we produce and consume, and move towards more sustainable alternatives. This is absolutely necessary if we want to keep global heating within the Paris goal of <a href=”https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement#:~:text=It%20entered%20into%20force%20on,above%20pre%2Dindustrial%20levels.%E2%80%9D” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>“well below 2°C”. Greening our economy was to become the EU’s lodestar, a catalyst for broader socio-economic transformation. Et voilà, the European Green Deal was born.

A binding target of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 – meaning that we can’t pump more GHG into the air than we pull back out again, was introduced. For 2030 the goal was to have <a href=”https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/climate-change/2030-climate-and-energy-framework/#:~:text=a%20commitment%20to%20continue%20reducing,states%20to%20set%20national%20targets” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>-55% emissions compared to 1990 levels.

To achieve these aims, the EU launched its <a href=”https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/green-deal/fit-for-55/” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>Fit-for-55 package, a set of new and revised policies to green our energy system, industrial production, building stock, mobility needs and food supply, while protecting and restoring our ecosystems and biodiversity. In its response to crises like the Covid-19 pandemic (NextGenerationEU) and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (REPowerEU), the Union doubled down on its belief that the green transition would provide the way out.

Even with all these actions, the EU’s green efforts might still not go far enough. In its latest stocktake of Europe’s environmental progress, the European Environmental Agency <a href=”https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/at-a-glance/state-of-europes-environment/environment-action-programme/8th-eap-indicator-based-progress-2023?activeAccordion=” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>forecasts that the EU is on its way to reach its emissions reduction goal for 2030, but still risks overstepping many of the planetary boundaries, as the Union has a hard time reducing its energy consumption and installing enough renewable energy capacity.

Perhaps more dangerous, however, is that something akin to eco-fatigue has set in. As the voices calling for a <a href=”https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/macron-calls-for-regulatory-break-in-eu-green-laws-to-help-industry/” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>“regulatory break” grow louder, the Green Deal is losing momentum. With the largest war on the European continent since WWII raging in the east, EU leaders suddenly find themselves scrambling to ramp up defence production.

Farmers, a key source of support for Europe’s right-wing forces, also showed their dissatisfaction with Europe’s green goals with<a href=”https://www.europeancorrespondent.com/r/european-farmers-are-getting-louder” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”> major protests around the continent. Choosing between protection against the Russian threat, safeguarding industry, supporting farmers and averting climate catastrophe, EU leaders now seem to believe, is a zero-sum game. When opening their pocketbooks, leaders argue, governments can spend only once, and the Green Deal is losing out.

What’s worse, Ursula von der Leyen has found herself in the awkward position of defending her own policy, while appeasing her increasingly Green Deal-sceptic European People’s Party (EPP). With a far-right surge in the upcoming European elections imminent, von der Leyen and the EPP are opting for a turn to the right, and <a href=”https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-hard-right-maastricht-debate-giorgia-meloni-viktor-orban-schmit/” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>openly flirting with a hard-right collaboration. <a href=”https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/04/12/green-deal-founders-amid-shifting-policy-focus” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>Draft guidelines on the next Commission’s priorities, meanwhile, do not even mention the Green Deal at all.

The result? What started out as a high-speed eco-train, is now barely chugging along. Key legislative files like the <a href=”https://www.europeancorrespondent.com/r/parliament-passes-green-makeover” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>Energy Performance of Buildings Directive resulted in pyrrhic victories for Green Deal supporters, while bickering over state aid rules culminated in a toothless and underfunded attempt at cleantech re-industrialisation through the <a href=”https://www.europeancorrespondent.com/net-zero-industry-act” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>Net Zero Industry Act. Contentious bills like the <a href=”https://www.europeancorrespondent.com/r/its-only-over-when-its-over” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>Nature Restoration Law and a <a href=”https://www.europeancorrespondent.com/r/the-victory-for-farmers” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>regulation on pesticides didn’t even reach the finish line at all.

So, will farmers, industrial competition, the rearmament of the European continent and the hard right be the four horsemen of the climate apocalypse? They don’t have to be. While perhaps not on top of voters’ list of priorities, public support for climate action remains <a href=”https://climate.ec.europa.eu/citizens/citizen-support-climate-action_en#:~:text=There%20is%20strong%20support%20for,neutral%20EU%20economy%20by%202050.” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>overwhelming, to the extent that not going green has arguably become unthinkable.

Tackling the climate and energy crisis simply makes economic sense, as the cost of inaction is rising too. The fact that slapping a monetary value on environmental degradation might be harder, does not mean it has no value at all. Annual weather and climate-related losses are already estimated at between <a href=”https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2023” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>some €14 billion and <a href=”https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/indicators/economic-losses-from-climate-related” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>nearly €60 billion, as Europe has earned the dubious title of becoming the world’s fastest warming continent, at a <a href=”https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2023” style=”text-decoration: underline !important;”>whopping 2.3°C compared with pre-industrial levels – well above the Paris goal of 1.5°C! Europe’s leaders would do well to remember this.