Why Armenia should care about the Georgian elections
The outcome of Georgia's parliamentary election extends beyond national concerns, impacting not only the country's future and commitment to European integration but also the geopolitics of the entire South Caucasus. The results are especially awaited in Armenia, as the country is cautiously re-engaging in a European path following a long pause.
Armenia's current government started a westward foreign policy trajectory over the past year, regardless of the negative shifts in Georgia, and is likely to deepen cooperation with Brussels in the near future. According to EU foreign policy expert Laure Delcour, this is largely due to Armenia's current commitment to democratic processes and ambitions for regional peace.
In a commentary for The European Correspondent, Delcour also points out that ”if Georgia moves away from its EU path, this would affect Armenia's attempts to seek deeper integration with the EU, given Georgia's geostrategic position as a gateway between Europe and the South Caucasus, as well as Armenia's landlocked situation. By contrast, the continuation of Georgia's path towards EU membership would facilitate Armenia's own quest for closer links with the EU.”
Over the past two years, Armenia has distanced itself from Russia and shifted its foreign policy toward the West. As part of regional developments, Armenia and Georgia have also strengthened their relationship, with Georgia increasing its investments in Armenia and establishing a strategic partnership agreement. However, with the Georgian Dream party claiming victory, Georgia is poised to distance itself from the West and its aspirations for European integration. The geopolitical isolation, along with the potential for sanctions from the West, may drive both Georgia and Armenia to strengthen ties with regional powers like Russia, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan, as well as China.
These alignments could complicate Armenia's European integration ambitions, which the government has championed over the past year, and its efforts to negotiate a peace treaty with Azerbaijan without any mediation from emerging regional powers. Additionally, the success of pro-Russian powers across the region might intensify the Kremlin's pressure on Armenia, potentially also leading to a change of course for the country.
In any scenario, the futures of Armenia and Georgia are closely linked, as both nations, with their democratic aspirations, are navigating in a complex geopolitical environment, shaped by influential authoritarian neighbours, each on a different side of geopolitical trajectories.