Hope is an axe

Trading one dependency for another?

Did you think the EU ended its energy dependence on Russia years ago? Not quite – but that might change now. The European Commission wants to cut the EU's remaining energy ties with Russia by 2027. 

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has made significant strides in reducing its dependence on Russian energy. Gas imports from Russia have fallen from 45% to 19%, while oil imports have plummeted from 27% to just 3%. 

Despite the progress, the bloc still relies on Russian energy through ongoing pipeline gas deliveries, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and residual oil shipments. In total, the EU has sent more than €200 billion to Russia for fossil fuels since 2022 – half of that for gas alone. 

If the Commission gets its way, that'll all change now. Under the plan, new or short-term Russian gas contracts will be banned from 2025, and existing long-term contracts, which still account for two-thirds of Russian gas imports, must be phased out within three years. 

Slovakia and Hungary, which remain heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas and have shown reluctance toward tougher sanctions, are likely to resist these measures or seek exemptions that could undermine the plan's effectiveness.

What the India-Pakistan escalation teaches us about nuclear proliferation

Darius Kölsch

As Europe celebrated the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, India and Pakistan launched missiles and artillery shells at each other. The hostilities started with missile strikes by India on Pakistani territory on 6 May. India said these were in response to a terrorist attack that killed 27 tourists in the disputed Kashmir region in late April. Both countries have nuclear weapons, making this only the second direct missile exchange between nuclear-armed countries in history, after the 1999 Kargil war between the same.

Ever since nuclear weapons were developed, their unmatched destructive power has been used mostly as a deterrent, guaranteeing that any country that threatens to destroy a nuclear power will itself, too, be destroyed.

Given the potential damage of nuclear war, almost the entire international community agreed on the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which limits the availability of nuclear weapons to the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK. Notably, India and Pakistan are two of only four countries not to have signed the NPT – along with South Sudan and Israel.

But a major reason is also that every additional state with nuclear weapons increases the risk that one state will actually use them. If missile barrages are flying towards important targets in India or Pakistan, a stressed commander cannot always know whether these are nuclear-armed or not, and might react as if they were.

The ceasefire agreed over the weekend is a good step forward – but there was little reason for India to strike Pakistan in the first place. After all, there are many less escalatory and more productive reactions to a terrorist attack than striking a neighbouring nuclear state and bringing the region to the brink of all-out war. 

Instead, the escalation highlights that the proliferation of nuclear weapons could not come at a worse moment, when the international order is breaking apart and state-on-state conflicts from border disputes to all-out war, are becoming more and more common.

Meanwhile, the typical bad guys like North Korea and Iran have long sought nuclear weapons to shore up their regimes and deter external interventions. But more recently, the US's revisionist turn under Trump has even countries like Japan and Germany debating whether they should acquire their own nuclear deterrent. And so, in search of individual security, risks of a nuclear confrontation, ironically, are increasing.

A ploughman's quandary

"Healthy soils are the foundation of life on earth", as Nikolaos Efthimiou, an agronomist at the Czech University of Life Sciences, puts it. The ground on which we walk impacts human health, food security, water systems, and our ability to adapt to the climate crisis.

Yet 89% of soils in European agricultural land are in poor condition, according to the European Commission. There are several reasons for this: intensive farming, droughts, floods, fires due to the climate crisis, pollution, and urbanisation. Most recently, Russia's war on Ukraine has ravaged more than 10 million hectares of the country's agricultural land. 

With fewer nutrients in the soil to help crops flourish, European farmers are losing an estimated €1,25 billion worth of agricultural yield every year.  

What's being done about it? The Commission proposed a Soil Monitoring Directive in July 2023 to ensure coherence in how soil data is collected across EU member states. The law will make soil health management targets evidence-based and legally binding. But so far, the directive hasn't passed – it's stuck in Parliament and the Council.

Alongside this top-down approach, Efthimiou argues that farmers and citizens need to be more engaged in the switch to sustainable consumption habits. 

Douze points for controversy

Nerses Hovsepyan

This week, Europe celebrates its annual flamboyant party with a splash of politics and nationalism – Eurovision 2025 is here. Before the fun kicks off, here's a rundown of this year's Eurovision drama: 

At the centre of it all is Israel's participation, despite its war on Gaza, in which it has so far killed over 50,000 people in Gaza, including 17,000 children. More than 70 former Eurovision participants and winners have signed an open letter calling for Israel to be banned from the competition. 

This isn't new. Last year, several performers supported Palestine on stage, despite Eurovision's strict ban on political messages. Some wore outfits inspired by the keffiyeh (like Portugal's act), while others used ancient Irish script to sneak in pro-Palestine slogans. The Palestinian flag is completely banned at Eurovision, which has only fuelled the backlash.

That Israel is allowed to participate is especially astonishing compared with how Russia was treated after it invaded Ukraine in 2022. It was quickly kicked out of the contest, and its state broadcasters were suspended from the organising European Broadcasting Union (EBU). 

What's behind Israel's participation? It may have something to do with Eurovision's main sponsor, Moroccanoil, which isn't actually Moroccan, but an Israeli company. Since becoming a major sponsor in 2019, Moroccanoil has contributed millions of euros annually to the EBU, which has likely helped keep Israel in the competition, even as pressure builds to kick them out.

Now, with the 2025 contest about to begin, Israel will go ahead with its performance. But if last year is anything to go by, we can expect boos from the crowd and chants of "Free Palestine" when their act takes the stage.

In other Eurovision news, Klavdia, Greece's representative this year, will be performing Asteromáta. Her song is inspired by her family's history as Pontic Greek refugees. It references the Pontic genocide, where the Ottoman government killed 350,000 people between 1914 and 1923 – an event the Turkish government continues to deny. 

Meanwhile, over in eastern Europe, Moldova pulled out of this year's contest, likely because it just got too expensive. While they haven't criticised Eurovision directly, the move questions whether the contest is still accessible to smaller or less well-off countries.

As for Georgia, this year's act, Mariam Shengelia, isn't likely to get much support from home. She's appeared in pro-government promotional material at a time when thousands of Georgians, especially young people, are protesting against that very same government for its anti-Europe decisions. 

And then there's the most bizarre twist of all – this year's Eurovision has effectively banned pride flags. The EBU has ruled that only national flags will be allowed on stage and in the green room to keep things "neutral" and avoid political messages. Whether you're new to Eurovision or a die-hard fan, you'll know the contest is nicknamed the "gay Olympics", where pride flags have always been a big part of it. 

Last year's winner, Nemo, a non-binary artist who proudly waved their non-binary flag throughout their Eurovision journey, has joined other artists and national broadcasters in speaking out against the decision and calling it a step backwards.

As many as 37 countries will participate in Basel, Switzerland, following Nemo's win last year. The first semi-final is on 13 May, the second on 15 May, and the grand final follows on 17 May.