How Türkiye almost became an autocracy in seven days

Last Wednesday, Istanbul's mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was jailed alongside countless other oppositional figures, journalists, activists, and citizens. With that, the Turkish government almost became an autocracy. The only thing stopping president Erdoğan's power grab now are the millions of citizens protesting daily. Here's the past week in my autocracy diary.

Hazar Deniz Eker

Tuesday, 18 March. Today, the potential final days of Türkiye's already dwindling democracy started. It all began with an alleged bureaucratic mishap, barring Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's strongest opponent from challenging him in a presidential election. Ekrem İmamoğlu's bachelor's degree was invalidated, as he allegedly misfiled a university transfer over 30 years ago. Any presidential candidate in Türkiye must hold a diploma.

Meanwhile, the opposition has long questioned the validity of Erdoğan's university degree, which perhaps explains the president's obsession with restricting higher education. Ever since a failed coup attempt in 2016, Erdoğan has cracked down on universities across the country, appointing new rectors and unleashing riot police on students. It's still considered a criminal offence to question the president's alleged degree in business administration, for which journalists have been imprisoned.

Protests against İmamoğlu's arrest begin at the Istanbul town hall in Saraçhane.

Wednesday and Thursday, 19 and 20 March. Early morning, İmamoğlu, alongside 91 others, is detained and jailed on charges of corruption and terrorism. The charges are substantiated by anonymous witnesses and a recording of İmamoğlu counting money at his lawyers' office. The governor of Istanbul, an Erdoğan-appointed representative, orders a protest ban for four days.

The opposition calls the arrest the 'coup of 19 March'. Thousands gather in Saraçhane.

Friday, 21 March. Tractors decorated with countless Türkiye flags join the protest in the province of Konya. This is a surprising sight, given that Konya, together with other more rural Central Anatolian provinces, relentlessly supports the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The provinces even stayed true to Erdogan's party during last year's local elections, which the AKP lost to the opposition.

The strong grip of state-run TV channels in the region partially explains this support. Most state-owned and adjacent channels routinely spread misinformation and censorship. Journalists are already among those arrested in this week’s protests. As Türkiye continues to plummet down the ranking of the Press Freedom Index, social media news consumption of independent outlets is on the rise.

This Friday, 200,000 people gather at Saraçhane.

Saturday, 22 March. It's been an expensive week for the country. The Turkish lira plummeted in value again. To stabilise the situation, the Turkish central bank used 79% of its foreign exchange reserves (about $26 billion). It took the central bank a full year to save that money, and now they spent it all in three days.

These numbers are nothing new. Türkiye has suffered under an enormous economic crisis, with inflation rates at 40-60% for the past 6 years. The government's long mismanagement of the economy couldn't be turned around by new presidential appointees, either. The worst hit by the cost of living crisis are minimum wage workers and retirees. Since 2021, the minimum wage has been lower than the average cost of rent in Istanbul.

Saraçhane hosted 550,000 people tonight.

Sunday, 23 March. İmamoğlu is formerly imprisoned on corruption charges, awaiting court trial in one of Türkiye's most notorious prisons. The opposition denies the validity of the charges.

The only disruptions to the speeches by various oppositional figures that I heard at Saraçhane were occasional screams for help as tear-gas-drenched, bleeding protestors were rushed to an ambulance through the record crowd of one million people. The government intensified its violent crackdown on the protests across the country, a common sight during the AKP's 24-year-long rule. Over the past five days, over 1,100 people have been detained for protesting, including ten journalists.

Monday, 24 March, and beyond. None of this is surprising. İmamoğlu himself warned citizens about his arrest a week before. But of course, "this isn't about İmamoğlu", as Yusuf Can, the coordinator and analyst of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, tells me.

İmamoğlu symbolises much larger issues, from the economy, to press and academic freedom. "We passed a 'make or break' point, there's no going back from this." If the mayor of 16 million people can be arrested on unfounded charges, alongside countless journalists and activists, anyone can.

What's next? There are two ways forward: intensifying police violence could eventually quell these protests when they become too dangerous to truly mobilise the masses. This would mean the end to meaningful parliamentary opposition. Erdoğan gambles that public opinion would shift, and the economy would normalise until the next 'election.'

But despite everything, Türkiye isn't a full autocracy yet. Students and the opposition are protesting relentlessly. While a ruling party that consolidated its power over 24 years won't cease its grip in just a week, they show that civil resistance is very much alive – and that it will take time.

As Can argues, "This is not going to be a one-week thing. These kinds of regimes don't go away that easily. You have to resist. You're going to have to organise locally. Continue with the boycotts. Recruit new people.."

Why Europe is protesting simultaneously

Georgia, Serbia, and now Türkiye – unprecedented protests sweep the continent. The more autocratic leaders emboldened by the international environment tighten their grip, the more citizens push back. While the EU remains limited in its response, brave citizen movements, mostly student-led, resist.

Hazar Deniz Eker and Julius E. O. Fintelmann

It wasn't easy to navigate the crowd of one million protestors on Sunday night in front of Istanbul's town hall. The tear gas aroma in the air did little to mute the chants calling for the release of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu.

Seen as the most promising challenger to long-term president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,  İmamoğlu was arrested alongside countless other opposition politicians, journalists, activists, and citizens last week on bogus corruption and terrorism charges. With this step, the Turkish government is on the brink of becoming an autocracy in which opponents are chosen, not elected. The outcome of the protests, however, could still stop them short of that goal.

Just a week before, around 400,000 people demonstrated against the corruption of the Serbian government in Belgrade. This came after months of protests sparked by the collapse of a train station roof, killing 15 in November. Meanwhile, in Georgia, citizens have been blocking Tbilisi's main Rustaveli Avenue for 116 days in a row every evening. They protest against stolen elections in October and the de facto government's alignment with Russia.

Why does this happen at the same time?

"Autocrats reinforce each other", explains Anastasia Bezverkha, a researcher on nonviolent protests and a veteran of Ukraine's two revolutions in 2004 and 2014, to The European Correspondent. One autocrat's successes inspire others – creating a political and cultural international environment makes them take more risks.

In 2025, we can mainly thank US president Donald Trump's administration for that environment. In his first two months, Trump cut US foreign aid funding, reduced military aid to Ukraine, and showed no interest in stopping foreign leaders from consolidating their power (there've been limited to no reactions to either the situation in Türkiye or Serbia). Not only has this strengthened autocrats across Europe, but it also left the EU in a weaker position.

During the ongoing protests in Serbia, USAID funding cuts for Serbian human rights groups were followed by government raids of their offices. Emboldened by the US administration, Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vučić, continued his crackdown on the opposition while echoing Trump's sentiments about USAID. The Serbian government also continues to build business ties with the Trump family, planning multiple American projects in Belgrade.

In Türkiye, Erdoğan has been consolidating his power for years but rarely has the government been in a more advantageous position internationally. Next to Trump, the EU's dependency on Türkiye grew larger. The refugee deal, which sees Türkiye holding millions of refugees in exchange for EU funds, is an even more powerful card in Erdoğan's hand now.

At a time when anti-immigrant sentiment looms at large over the continent, encouraged by electoral successes of right-wing parties, Erdoğan can leverage his threat to "open the gates" and send refugees to the EU again. At the same time, Trump's reduced military support for Ukraine also means that the EU looks to Türkiye as a potential military ally against Russia, allowing Erdoğan to count on less EU condemnation for his actions.

Students defend democracy

As the international community allows autocrats to grab more power while the EU grows more dependent on them, democracies often rely on students to start the resistance. In Türkiye, the first big protest following İmamoğlu's arrest was organised by students of Istanbul University. In Serbia, the large national protest this month, which drew the biggest crowd ever in the country, was student-led.

"As a student, you have free time, energy, and the knowledge needed to rebel. That's why free academia is so necessary: in societies that fail to have universities as spaces of free expression, revolutions are either non-existent or become violent," according to Bezverkha.

And now, these student-led protests reach across the continent. Young protesters in that one-million-people crowd in Istanbul told us that after seeing posts go viral of protests in Tbilisi and Belgrade, they wished to have the same in Türkiye as a response to the deep economic and political frustration in the country. Now, one week after Serbia's largest protests ever, hundreds of thousands are out on the streets.

While autocratic leaders increasingly feed off each other, students also embolden each other's movements – and show that democracy, civil liberties, and economic freedom are nothing to take for granted.