Welcome to the new world order

The world order as we know it disappeared this weekend. While we still have to find out what replaces it, it's clear that Europe is now on its own.

Julius E. O. Fintelmann

The transatlantic friendship that guaranteed European security for decades has just collapsed. That's the main takeaway from this year's Munich Security Conference, which gathered over 50 world leaders and hundreds of diplomats and journalists.

In a fiery speech, US vice president JD Vance openly called for collaboration with far-right parties in Europe – particularly the Alternative for Germany (AfD) – saying that there's no place for 'firewalls' in democracies. This is a direct attempt to interfere in Germany's upcoming elections and proves that the new US administration sees a free and democratic Europe as its enemy.

Beyond rhetoric on Europe's alleged democratic deficit, US officials said Europe wouldn't be at the table at peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and floated the idea of reducing the 100,000 American troops permanently deployed here.

What does all of this mean when we zoom out?

First, we're entering uncharted territory. Any illusion of certainty that remained after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 is now gone. The one thing we do know is: we're on our own. Our security is now our responsibility and ours alone. Europe can no longer rely on American protection.

Second, 2025 is about what Europeans do, not say. The core message behind the US's chaotic push for peace is: Europe must come up with its own plan to guarantee peace in Ukraine and within the continent.

Over the past few days, so many European leaders called this moment a "wake-up call". But our continent is already wide awake; we've been watching a brutal war unfold for three years. With Russia relentlessly invading Ukraine and possibly attacking the Baltics or Poland in the next five years (as Danish intelligence warned recently), the right moment to rearm Europe's militaries was a decade ago.

Let's do a thought experiment: Imagine if, instead of another round of declarations, one of the many European foreign ministers had announced the formation of a rapid-response force – 10,000-15,000 troops, ready to be deployed to Ukraine the moment a ceasefire is agreed. That could have triggered a chain reaction where other countries could join in, and jolt NATO. That kind of decisive action was exactly what European leaders failed to deliver this weekend.

One can only hope we get more action in the coming days, as French president Emmanuel Macron gathers European heads of state and government in Paris for an emergency meeting this Monday. A silver lining: The German foreign minister said on Sunday night that the EU would soon (read: after the German elections) launch "a large financial package for security that has never been seen in this dimension before."

In a very optimistic scenario, the US abandoning Europe could finally push our continent to get its act together – on all frontiers, not just security. Or it could leave Europe stranded and stagnant, in eternal internal disarray, giving up Ukraine to Moscow, and offering the Kremlin the opportunity to invade other parts of the continent after it rearmed its now depleted army. As Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy put it: "if it's not Brussels, it's Moscow. It's your decision."

Welcome to the new world order.

Why the minimum wage directive might miss its point

Adopted in October 2022, the EU's minimum wage directive wanted to shift Europe towards a more social one by ensuring adequate minimum wages across member states, compared to previous labour rights policies. Yet, most member states failed to transpose it into national law by last November's deadline, while some even sought to weaken national standards. With direct impacts on European citizens.

Marie-Flore Pirmez

One of the few flagship initiatives of the last Commission, particularly popular among centre-left and employee-minded politicians, aimed to address the difficulties of regulating wages at the EU level. Member states approach collective bargaining and minimum wages differently. Minimum wages range from €477 per month in Bulgaria – the EU country with the lowest wages – to €2,571 per month in Luxembourg, while others don't have one at all.

Cue the minimum wage directive. While it doesn't establish a single 'minimum wage' for the entire continent, it seeks to encourage countries to raise their minimum wages gradually. However, it left much of the implementation to national governments, to the point that large parts of the text became non-binding.

The directive requires member states with statutory minimum wages to ensure that wages remain fair and sufficient for workers. To do so, it lays the foundations for a common governance of minimum wage-setting mechanisms. It suggests – but doesn't require – to set an adequate minimum wage at at least 60% of the country's gross median salary and 50% of its gross average salary.

It also pushes member states where less than 80% of the workforce is overall covered by collective bargaining agreements to adopt measures promoting collective bargaining to increase this rate. Measures that strengthen negotiations between employers and workers, aiming to improve wage conditions.

A failure to deliver

Even though the text was backed by 24 EU countries, most have failed to meet the deadline of 15 November for transposing the minimum wage directive into national law. Just days before this date, only eight member states had officially ratified the text. The European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) cited a 'lack of political will' from governments like France, Poland, and the Netherlands. It also raised concerns about measures in Czechia, Luxembourg, and Latvia that could reduce wages and collective bargaining coverage. ETUC and other labour rights actors have since launched Wage-Up, a web tool monitoring transposition progress across the EU.

Does this mean the directive has not improved minimum wage levels for European workers? Not entirely. The so-called 'double decency threshold' – 60% of the median wage and 50% of the average wage –  has already positively impacted minimum wage-setting in several member states, according to research. Bulgaria set the minimum wage at 50% of the average wage in 2023, while a Polish 2024 draft legislation aims for 55%. 

Slovakia's legislation also includes a provision for a 57% threshold if no agreement is reached. These 'hard law' approaches are mostly found in central and eastern Europe. Other countries, like Croatia, Ireland, and Estonia, use the threshold as a political guideline for wage increases, which, while less binding, still holds influence. But the game isn't over yet.

A new legal challenge puts the EU's minimum wage directive – and the protections it aims to guarantee for European workers – at risk. The Advocate General of the European Court of Justice (CJEU) Nicholas Emiliou has issued an opinion in which he argues that EU institutions knew they were 'walking on thin ice' when adopting the directive. He points out that EU treaties explicitly exclude 'pay' from the areas where the EU can directly legislate, meaning the directive may have overstepped the Union's authority. 

Emiliou's opinion directly supports objections from Sweden and Denmark. The latter filed a complaint to the CJEU, calling to annul the directive and claiming wage provisions exceed EU authority. The opinion also threatens key obligations to promote collective bargaining and prevent union busting. In response, several MEPs stressed that the Court isn't bound to follow this opinion and expect the directive to be upheld. 

Meanwhile, the ETUC responded that 'validating this line of argument would have dangerous and far-reaching consequences that would risk undermining years of pain-staking social progress in EU law', also warning that without common safeguards, European workers risk being caught in a race to the bottom on wages. 

Why isn't the directive setting a European minimum wage as such?

The explanation is both legal and economic. Currently, 22 out of the 27 EU countries have a national minimum wage. In the five remaining countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Italy and Austria), a minimum wage is defined by sector, through collective bargaining. But when it comes to social matters, the EU's powers are limited. Such a level of harmonisation imposed by a directive would be contrary to the Treaties and would also have a deleterious effect on EU's economy. 'If Bulgaria were to adopt Luxembourg's wages, its economy would cease to exist overnight', said ex-Commissioner for Employment and Social Rights Nicolas Schmit when presenting the directive in October 2020.