Relief in France and Brussels, yet deadlock looms
08 July 2024
France's second-round legislative elections caught all eyes in Europe on Sunday night. The biggest fear in Brussels was that Marine Le Pen's far-right and Eurosceptic party National Rally (RN), would win an absolute majority and form a new government. This was prevented by a “republican front” between leftist and centrist parties which appears to have worked better than expected.
Surprisingly, following final results published early Monday morning, the left-wing New Popular Front becomes the largest in parliament, followed by Macron’s centrist coalition and the far-right coming third – a setback compared to the far-right landslide the polls predicted. Still, the RN is achieving by far its best legislative results, nearly doubling its seats.
With a far-right government now off the table, what comes next? No bloc is close to an absolute majority, making a hung parliament likely. Macron now faces a highly divided parliament, with three major blocs that appear unable to work together, making it nearly impossible to form a stable government. This could lead to months of political gridlock, as the art of making compromises and coalition-building is not typically part of French political culture.
This political uncertainty will weaken France internationally; reaching consensus on divisive foreign policy issues will take more time or might be sidelined to avoid rejection in parliament. France also risks turning insular, more preoccupied with its unstable domestic politics than its role on the world stage.
This will have repercussions for the EU, given France's significant role in the bloc’s policy. As a founding member, the bloc's second-largest economy, a nuclear NATO power, and a UN Security Council member, France has outside influence in Europe. This was evident during Brexit, Trumpism, Covid-19, and the war in Ukraine, where France pushed for a united European response.
 | Nathan Domon The results bring a big sigh of relief across Europe. A far-right French government would likely have been a handbrake on the European project. However, it’s not all good news: a political gridlock in Paris means Brussels could lose its driving force for a while. |
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