Winds of secession in Bosnia
11 March 2025
Following his conviction last week, Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian-Serb separatist leader, appears to be setting up all the conditions for Republika Srpska – the country's Serb-majority federal entity – to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In recent days, Dodik has seriously undermined Bosnia's stability by enacting a law that prohibits the federal police, SIPA, from operating on RS soil and ordering its Serb officers to join the RS police. The law was immediately annulled by the Constitutional Court, and EUFOR units – the European peacekeeping force – were seen patrolling key checkpoints in major cities.
Meanwhile, Denis Bećirović, the Chairman of Bosnia and Herzegovina's Presidency, urgently met with EU ambassadors, who reaffirmed their support for Bosnia's security and territorial integrity. In the U.S., Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned Dodik's actions on X, but with Trump's new soft-line on Russia, there is considerable skepticism surrounding U.S. foreign policy in the Balkans – or how much they are even focused on it.
 | Alessandro Cinciripini The situation in Bosnia has not been this tense in decades. The possibility of an armed clash between Dodik's local administration and the federal government is becoming increasingly realistic, and citizens are beginning to fear the worst. While it seems that Dodik is making a last, desperate all-in move to stay afloat after his conviction last week, the situation is deteriorating. EUFOR has announced that it will temporarily increase its personnel, and pressure is mounting on Christian Schmidt – the High Representative responsible for implementing the Dayton Agreement – to dismiss Dodik. |
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