The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh

By Aren Melikyan and Rabia Hale Seferoğlu, 24 September 2023

Evacuated Armenian children in Nagorno-Karabakh Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

On 19 September, Azerbaijan launched what it called an “anti-terrorist operation” in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. After 24 hours of fighting, the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh laid down their weapons, flagging willingness for a truce. For the first time in decades, the abiding enemies agreed to sit around a table to negotiate their future that to many brings nothing but uncertainty.

What has happened in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Over the last 30 years, more than 35,000 lives have been lost in a mountainous area called Nagorno-Karabakh. This landlocked region in the South Caucasus is the reason for a decades-long dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sitting within the internationally recognised borders of Azerbaijan, the disputed area has around 120,000 population of Armenian majority. Home to numerous Armenian churches and historic sites, this region is more than a chunk of soil for the nation. This notion, however, is very familiar to their Azerbaijani neighbours. The region of wealthy natural resources such as minerals and metals also hosts various Azerbaijani and muslim religious sites and plays a significant role in Azerbaijan’s national identity building.

The roots of the conflicts were cemented in the early days of the Soviet Union, to which both countries belonged. For seven decades, ethnic Armenians lived in their autonomous region under Azerbaijani rule as part of Soviet Azerbaijan until the Soviet Union began to collapse. A 1988 Karabakh Armenian request to join Soviet Armenia was rejected by Moscow. In the ruins of the Soviet Union, Armenians and Azerbaijanis found themselves in a bloody war that lasted almost four years and ended in 1994 with a ceasefire agreement. With a record of around 30,000 deaths on both sides, Armenians won the war. The de facto government in Artsakh, the Armenian name of Nagorno-Karabakh, took control over not only the region but also seven adjacent territories of Azerbaijan, expelling from there the Azerbaijani population.

After almost thirty years of the frozen conflict, occasionally interrupted by short muscle-flexings and border clashes, in September 2020, Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, effectively taking control over the seven occupied regions and some parts of Artsakh. A Moscow-brokered truce ended the war on its 44th day, but it did not end the conflict. As part of the agreement, 2,000 Russian troops were deployed to the region for a peacekeeping mission.

With no further agreements reached, in December 2022, Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin corridor – the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, effectively isolating the region from essential medical, food and energy supplies. Amidst a deteriorating humanitarian crisis, Azerbaijan offered negotiations to discuss the region's integration into Azerbaijan, but this offer was rejected by local Armenians. On 19 September, Baku initiated what it described as “an anti-terrorist operation”, which lasted just a bit more than a day and is now poised to determine the future of around 120,000 Armenians residing in Karabakh.

The view from the region

The view from Yerevan

Watching Nagorno-Karabakh surrender: The attack on Nagorno-Karabakh did not come as a surprise to Yerevan. For months, the Armenian government had warned about potential "ethnic cleansing" in Nagorno-Karabakh and had noted the military buildup along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, expressing concerns about a possible invasion of its own territory. Consequently, due to these fears, the Armenian government, which had been a longstanding guarantor of the safety of the people of Karabakh, chose to step back and solely observed the surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenia, which has been distancing itself from Karabakh recently, giving in to geopolitical pressure, takes the course of a ‘peace epoch’, hoping to avoid military confrontation that this time might risk the country’s independence and sovereignty. However, the ‘peace epoch’ does not sit well with the country’s opposition, which does not believe in lasting cohabitation with Azerbaijan. As the government turned its back to Nagorno-Karabakh, angry Armenians took their steam off by filling the streets of Yerevan in support of their compatriots in Artsakh and demanding the government’s resignation, unfolding a new political crisis in the country.

The view from Stepanakert/Khankendi

"The world abandoned us": The head of the non-recognised Republic of Artsakh was appointed to his new position days before the attack. The presidential elections were condemned and not internationally recognised. At his new job, the leader’s first task in position was to face the Azerbaijani military attack. According to the local authorities, more than 200 people have been killed, 400 are injured, and hundreds are missing. Among the casualties are civilians, including children. This number is still to rise, as many still seek their relatives amid an ongoing communication blackout.

The escalating death toll eventually compelled Nagorno-Karabakh representatives to agree to a truce and journey to Yevlakh, Azerbaijan, for negotiations on Azerbaijan's terms. However, in Karabakh, many remain sceptical about cohabiting with their long-standing adversaries, with whom they have endured numerous wars resulting in the loss of many loved ones. Both international observers and local residents have voiced concerns over the potential for ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the region.

The view from Baku

"End of thirty years of longing": Since the conclusion of the Second Karabakh War in 2020, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone has become dangerous due to the widespread placement of mines by Armenia. These mines tragically claimed the lives of more than 300 Azerbaijani citizens, including civilians, as claimed by President Ilham Aliyev in his televised address to the nation on 20 September. These casualties, deemed unacceptable by Azerbaijani authorities, prompted the launch of Azerbaijan's military operation in Karabakh, aimed at the removal of local armed forces and the elimination of said mines.

During the 24-hour operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan urged local armed groups and the unrecognised leadership to surrender. Furthermore, Azerbaijan expressed its willingness to engage with representatives of the Armenian community to explore prospects for integration into Azerbaijan.

On 20 September 2023, the “anti-terrorist operation” concluded with Karabakh armed forces laying down their weapons, leaving military posts, and undergoing complete disarmament.

Many Azerbaijani citizens are grieving the loss of lives, with the exact death toll unconfirmed by local authorities but estimated to be at least 65 people, including 1 civilian. Azerbaijanis also express satisfaction at their nation’s successful reclamation of control of its internationally recognised territory.

Recently, however, Azerbaijan has witnessed the arrest of several individuals and activists, who publicly spoke out against the “anti-terrorist operation” in Karabakh. These arrests have raised concerns among civil society and human rights advocates, who argue that their social media posts led to their arrest.

International reactions

Russia: The new war is likely to increase Armenia’s attempts to drift away from Moscow, following a series of disappointments. The Russian peacekeeper’s inaction to protect Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh raised questions of whether this is unwillingness or incapability. Armenia both directly and indirectly blamed Russia for not only fulfilling its responsibilities and being accomplice to Azerbaijan but also for staging anti-government protests and endorsing political discontent in the country for the leadership change. Russia tries to keep both parties under its control while supporting Azerbaijan's positions, claiming that since Armenia recognised Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, its hands are tied to act there. Numerous reports claim that Russian propaganda efforts synchronisation to stir the domestic political situation in Armenia through civic disobedience.

The EU: Brussels and most EU capitals condemned the attack on the Armenian population, announcing a strong response to the forced displacement of civilians. At the same time, the EU High Representative Josep Borrell reiterated the EU’s support for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia, calling on Azerbaijan to acknowledge Armenia’s territorial integrity too. Later, it was reported that the statement was meant to be an EU-27 one, but long-time Azerbaijani partner Hungary blocked it.

The EU also allocated financial assistance of €500,000 euros for the relief of the crisis in the region. However, this money seems like nothing, especially in comparison with the money the EU plans to pay Azerbaijan for gas. Only a year ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signed a new gas deal with Azerbaijani leader Aliyev in Baku, calling him a “trustworthy partner”. In a blow to the EU’s human rights values and standards, especially as two days after the attack, sources in Baku report that the EU announced and reaffirmed its plan to increase the import of Azerbaijani gas.

Georgia: The Georgian government has stayed in line with its general ignorance of regional developments and, possibly, in line with its silent siding with Azerbaijan. The only official voice of Georgia was the foreign ministry, which, amidst the fighting, cordially congratulated Armenia on its independence day on 21 September. After days of silence, the Georgian Prime Minister commented on the issue briefly in his UN General Assembly speech, expressing readiness to engage with the two neighbouring countries to bring lasting peace to the South Caucasus.

Many people in Georgia are hopeful about Armenia's attempt to break its partnership with Russia to side with Georgians on their westward trajectory.

The reality on the ground

Funerals everywhere, people are starving

The smell of smoke sits on Stepanakert as people take out of registers the last food to feed their children, locals tell. “The city is full of displaced people, some sleep in hotel corridors, in the streets”, “people desperately look for their missing relatives”, "stories of “alleged massacres in some villages” and “beheading of children.” Civilians in the blockaded city are in desperate search of something to eat. It has been more than nine months since the food supply of the region was interrupted by the Azerbaijani blockade. Another road in the hope of safety led ethnic Armenians of Karabakh to the only airport in the region in Stepanakert. The airport’s operation has been on halt for decades and is now home to the Russian peacekeeping base. Stories like this are heard over short phone calls or social media interactions. In the absence of international journalists, and limited internet access, the situation’s gravity is hard to assess.

What does the future hold?

While the first meeting between Armenians in Artsakh and Azerbaijani authorities, taking place in Yevlakh, Azerbaijan, did not end in an agreement, the parties say it opened a road to it. With hundreds of dead and injured, circulating stories about violent treatment by Azerbaijanis make the new reality of living under Azerbaijani control terrifying for Armenians as many flee their homes in search of safety. Photos of missing Armenian women and children are being disseminated on Azerbaijani social media, offering rewards for them to be found and raped. And while the women and children might be the more obvious victims, the situation is more critical for adult men. Most of them, participants of previous wars with Azerbaijan, are potential targets for Baku, where hundreds of criminal cases have been filed against them. With no international observers and press, this new reality of living under Azerbaijani control scares Armenians, and many of them consider fleeing their homes in search of safety.

Azerbaijan claims that in the course of the integration, ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan will be treated according to the Azerbaijani constitution. For many, this also means that ethnic Armenians, for instance, will be subject to obligatory military service in the Azerbaijani army, an institution that has been the main threat to them for decades. The painful road of integration would also mean sentences for Nagorno-Karabakh authorities and media figures. Earlier, it was claimed around 300-400 Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians who held public positions were required by Azerbaijani authorities to be extradited to Baku. Azerbaijani officials say amnesty might be possible.

Azerbaijan has a worrying human rights record and is well-known for effectively banning the regime’s opponents behind prison bars. Freedom of speech in the country is virtually non-existent, independent journalists are imprisoned or in exile and dissenting voices are silenced. Under circumstances with decades-long fueled anti-Armenian attitudes, the small ethnic population of Karabakh is at a dead end, abandoned and squeezed between big regional interests, with no tools at its hand.