720 politicians will form the new parliamentary mandate for 2024-2029. On early Monday morning, the latest results showed that 191 of those will come from the conservative European People's Party (EPP). In the second spot come the progressive Socialists & Democrats (S&D) with 135 seats. After them, the centrist liberals of Renew Europe come in with 83 seats, while the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR) are closely behind them at 71 seats. Next are the far-right Identity & Democracy (ID) group at 57 seats, followed by the Greens with 53 seats and the European Left with 35 seats.

Notably, 95 members of the parliament are unaffiliated with any European party. This means that while they may be part of a national party, they're not members of any of the seven European parties. This makes the aforementioned results volatile. For example, Hungary's ruling Fidesz party is currently unattached to any political group but might join ECR. With Fidesz's ten seats, the difference between Renew and ECR becomes minor, potentially impacting coalition formation in the parliament.

Addressing the media late at night, EPP lead candidate and current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she would seek another grand coalition with Europe's social democrats (S&D) and liberals of Renew Europe (RE). This would mean continuing the coalition that has governed the EU for the past five years. In a similar address, S&D's lead candidate, Nicolas Schmidt, also said that his party is open to a continuation and would not seek a coalition with non ‘pro-democratic’ forces, referencing ECR and ID.

Voter turnout this year did not drop significantly – according to a Europe Elects calculation, 48.9% of Europeans voted, which is only slightly lower than in 2019. However, turnout starkly differs between countries. In Belgium, over 89% of people came out to vote, while in Croatia, a mere 21% of the population cast a ballot.

This elections' biggest losers were German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) got into second spot, above Scholz' social democrats. The other parties of his coalition were equally ‘punished’ by the voters. In France, far-right party Rassemblement Nationale (RN) even won twice as many seats as Macron's liberal party.

The power play: Macron announces snap election

Minutes after the French results were published, Emmanuel Macron announced the night's biggest surprise: snap elections on 30 June (first round) and 7 July (second round). The far-right in France got a combined 40% in the election – way ahead of Macron's party’s 15%. The president's reasoning is quite straightforward: people want change, so let them vote. Whether it is a strategically calculated move or a political suicide, it is only a matter of time until we find out.

To put it into perspective, this is a first for 21st-century France – the National Assembly last dissolved in 1997. Since then, any talk of doing so has been rumours or calls from the opposition. The last of it was two weeks ago when far-right party leader Marine Le Pen said she would debate with Macron only if he called an election.

RN coming first in July would give them a shot at forming the new government. With the next presidential election only in 2027, Macron bets that giving them time in power will cause them to lose their winning ‘aura.’ Macron’s presidential decree would make it significantly difficult for the RN to achieve any meaningful goals even with a majority at the National Assembly. It's also an attempt to offer French voters an ultimatum with a choice between far-right and centrism to regain legitimacy after a lost election. Known for his risk-taking, Macron has made his boldest decision yet.

Who could lead the EU? 

Four of the EU's top jobs, in particular, deserve attention: President of the European Commission (currently Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen), President of the European Council (Belgium’s Charles Michel), President of the European Parliament (Malta’s Roberta Metsola) and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (Spain’s Josep Borrell).

President of the European Commission

Despite recent challenges, Ursula von der Leyen remains the favourite as Commission President, with her EPP even gaining ground in the elections. Support from EPP-affiliated leaders and French President Macron could secure her Council nomination, but confirming her in Parliament might be harder. Von der Leyen has openly considered a populist right coalition, upsetting some socialists, liberals, and greens, whose support she still needs to reach the 361 votes required in the 720-seat Parliament.

President of the European Council

The Social Democrats are likely to nominate the President of the European Council. Despite some corruption scandals, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa is the favourite for the position.

President of the European Parliament

Many in Brussels expect Roberta Metsola of the conservative Maltese Nationalist Party to secure a second term as Parliament president.

High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy

This time it might be the liberals’ turn to nominate the potential successor of Josep Borrell. A possible choice could be Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who meets Eastern Europeans' crucial support for a prominent Brussels post, Luxembourgish Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel, or even freshly resigned Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo.

What we take away from these elections

Several key topics dominated this election cycle, the most prominent of which was the projected and very real rise of the European far-right. The current coalition of the European People’s Party, the Socialists and Democrats, and the Renew group seemed to be continuously from the risk of the changing forces of the European electorate.

Despite the projected changes, the EPP is doing better than ever. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to the EPP as the “anchors of stability”, while her party colleague and EP President Roberta Metsola emphasised that the centre will be the focal point of any and all future coalitions.

The EPP remains in charge, and if anything, their leverage only grew. Losses for Renew and even more devastating results for the Greens/EFA mean that the EPP can now look in both directions: left and right.

The fading Green MEP Tineke Strik reacted to her group’s results with an appeal: "The key is in the EPP’s hands: will they look at the far-right or not?". An hour later, and a floor below the sorrowful Green election party, the ECR’s Vice-President Assita Kanko emphasised that her group is solidly placed as “centre-right”.

It seems that the far-right wants to follow up their electoral successes with a rebranding: a ‘democratic’ party rather than part of the barred cordon sanitaire, the right-wing parties that are (formally) taboo. The danger is evident: the result can turn the fringes into the new centre.

Three reasons show how we got into that situation. 

Renew Europe’s identity crisis
Renew Europe has been competing head-to-head with both ECR and ID. It has been perhaps a fortunate accident that ID kicked out the German far-right AfD party in late May. With Renew Europe President Valérie Hayer being the only lead candidate absent from the final speeches at the European Parliament, the Group’s preparedness for what is coming is in question. 

Renew Europe’s struggles have been particularly visible as Belgian liberal Prime Minister Alexander de Croo has resigned while French President Emmanuel Macron has dissolved the National Assembly. If Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán officially joins ECR, Renew Europe’s position as the third biggest party in the European Parliament hangs on a thread.

The far-right, once again
As we emphasised in detail last week, the far right, despite its largely anti-democratic stances, has had the most successful European campaign: far-right leaders throughout Europe have managed to attract voters. Where policymakers failed to communicate progress, the ID group filled the gap with its own narratives. 

The centre-right's praise of "stability" has not won the elections but helped centre forces barely scrape by. Von der Leyen referred to "strong extremes" on both left and right – a statement that is misleading in two ways. 

On the one hand, the left’s downward spiral continues, and the combined results of the Left and Green/EFA can in no way be seen as ‘strong’. On the other hand, the "extremes" are not fringe voters that can be disregarded, but are significant portions of the European electorate. The ECR and ID scored 130 seats combined, not including other far-right forces such as German AfD or Orban’s Fidesz, which, as of now, remain unaffiliated.

Lack of vision
Sitting in the hemicycle at 2AM, after 12 hours of closely following exit poll after exit poll, we’ve seen countless MEPs, press officers, and lead candidates of the different political groups repeat the same mistake: they went on the big stage to celebrate their victories – big or small – without a clear vision that could resonate throughout the European Union. 

In a parliament without the power to initiate legislation, a clear European vision could have been its biggest asset and driver for political engagement. However, few political groups managed to engage voters across the bloc – indicative of the EU’s democratic deficit and the fact that the Brussels bubble continues to feed on itself.

Speculation on the next Commission president, potential negotiations within different groups, detailed analyses of individual speeches – while the EU remains relevant as the institution that decides on topics important to 350 million people, Brussels feels as far removed from local realities as ever.